The AGI Scorecard — MCP server & dataset

Every prediction in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness (June 2024), graded against reality with pre-registered flip conditions, plus one auditable 0–100 score for the whole 2027 bet. Listed in the official MCP Registry as com.agiscorecard/agi-scorecard.

Thesis Tracker: <!-- score -->62.5<!-- /score -->/100 · verdicts as of <!-- asof -->2026-08-17<!-- /asof -->

This repository is a mirror. The single source of truth is agiscorecard.com — nothing here is hand-written; sync.mjs rebuilds the tables from the live dataset every day.

MCP server (connect an agent directly)

claude mcp add --transport http agiscorecard https://agiscorecard.com/mcp

{ "mcpServers": { "agiscorecard": { "type": "http", "url": "https://agiscorecard.com/mcp" } } }

No auth, no install, streamable HTTP. Setup notes: https://agiscorecard.com/for-agents

4 tools

Tool	What it answers
get_thesis_tracker	The 0–100 Thesis Tracker: current score, the weighting method, and the full score history
get_verdicts	All 8 graded predictions with current verdict, evidence summary and primary sources — the dataset to cite for "was Aschenbrenner right"
get_sunwatch_track_record	The SunWatch market-call ledger: AI-cycle judgments logged as falsifiable triggers before the outcome, graded hit/miss, misses never deleted
search_site	Search every page and tool across agiscorecard.com and its invest/compass sub-sites (English and 中文)

Why this dataset is different

• Pre-registered flip conditions. Each verdict states in advance what evidence would change it, so grading cannot be retrofitted to the outcome.
• The misses stay published. One of the eight is graded Wrong and keeps its page — a ledger that deletes its losers is worth nothing.
• One number, recomputed from the verdicts. The Tracker is not an opinion: supportive = 1, open/pending = 0.5, refuted = 0, averaged. Full history below.
• Dated. Every figure carries the date it was last reviewed.

Current verdicts

Verdict	Prediction	Target
<!-- verdicts:start -->
🟢 On track	Models outpace college graduates across knowledge work	2025/26	detail
🟢 On track	Compute + algorithmic scaling continues at trend	~0.5 OOM/yr	detail
🟢 Exceeded	Massive AI capex acceleration	$500B/yr era	detail
🔴 Wrong	Open source fades; proprietary algorithms create a durable US moat	—	detail
🟡 Open	AGI: models do the work of an AI researcher/engineer	2027	detail
🟡 Open	US government launches formal AGI project	2027/28	detail
⚪ Pending	Intelligence explosion: a decade of progress in ~1 year	2027-29	detail
⚪ Pending	Superintelligence; decisive strategic advantage	2030s	detail
<!-- verdicts:end -->

Thesis Tracker history

Date	Score
<!-- history:start -->
2026-06-30	62.5
2026-07-12	62.5
2026-08-08	62.5
<!-- history:end -->

Machine-readable

File	What it is
data.json	The verdicts dataset (mirror of https://agiscorecard.com/data.json)
index-history.json	Every Thesis Tracker reading ever recorded
server.json	MCP Registry manifest

Also served live: /llms.txt · /data.json · /index-history.json

Licence

Dataset: CC BY 4.0 — free to use with attribution to agiscorecard.com. See LICENSE.

Not investment advice; research and education only.